Now I'll be the first to admit the All Blacks have had a disappointing start to the season. The NZ public never like to see the All Blacks lose test matches - let alone test matches at home, so when they dropped the first test of the season to France, of course the knives were out, and rightly so, it was a poor performance by the All Blacks.

This was followed up by a tough, grinding win over France in terrible conditions in Wellington. Sure, there were only four points in the game and France left with the trophy but it was a much improved performance by the All Blacks, particularly up front (Thanks in large part, to actually picking a specialist loose forward trio which won the battle of the breakdown, unlike the previous week). The score line probably did not reflect the dominance the All Blacks had in the game but nevertheless, the All Blacks won.

Following this, the All Blacks dished up a poor performance, against an Italian side that never looked likely and kicked the ball away at will while defending their hearts out.

While the three tests have been poor performances by the All Blacks there certainly have been some positives. Firstly, the unearthing of another possible world class lock in Isaac Ross, the return to form of some Blues All Blacks (Kaino, Mealamu and Rokocoko v Italy), Brad Thorn's role as a leader of the pack not to mention the experiences that the rookie All Blacks would have received in these tests that can only aid their development process.

As the seemingly annual pre-Tri Nations prediction game continued after three Wallaby tests, three All Black tests and two Springbok tests the general consensus is that the Springboks would be favourites for the Tri Nations (thanks mainly due to playing the hardest tests so far against the British and Irish Lions) with the Wallabies second and the All Blacks third.

Now from an All Blacks perspective, this would usually be fairly alarming. However, one must note the players that will come into the fold for the All Blacks for the Tri Nations. Five starting players, or one third of the starting side (yes, I can count) is to return. Richie McCaw, Rodney So'oialo, Andrew Hore, Conrad Smith and Sitiveni Sivivatu. Just to elaborate that is the captain and arguably the best player in the game (McCaw), the vice captain and starting number 8 (So'oialo), the starting hooker (Hore) the starting centre (Smith) and the most dangerous attacking back in the side and starting winger (Sivivatu). If you took the equivalent players out of the Wallabies and the Springboks teams one would doubt whether they would look significantly better than the All Blacks have so far this season.

Moreover, the talk of us losing the Tri Nations and Bledisloe is eerily similar to last year, following the third Tri Nations game and first Bledisloe Cup game in Sydney, in which the All Blacks were comprehensively outplayed by the Wallabies, going down 34-19. The All Blacks played poorly and had lost 2 out of the last 3 games. All was lost. Of course, this was followed up the following week by probably the best All Black performance all year, thrashing the Wallabies 39-10 at Eden Park. It was no coincidence that it coincided with the return of Richie McCaw. Under Richie McCaws leadership in 2008, the All Blacks didn't lose a game.

While I agree that it will be tough going for the All Blacks to defend their Tri Nations crown this season (especially with two games in South Africa), I also believe that it is simply too early to be making any logical comparisons at this stage of the season. I have no problem with sticking the boot in when it is deserved, but sense would suggest that the test on July 18th will give a much better indication of the All Blacks fortunes (positive or negative).

Due to this negative outlook on the Tri Nations, a negative outlook has filtered through to the All Blacks chances for the World Cup (I find it highly ironic that in a country accused of peaking between World Cups, its now Doomsday when we lose a test). In response to this it may be relevant to fast forward to this years end of year tour. On this tour available will be a world class number 10 (Dan Carter) and a starting lock (Ali Williams). Combine this with the youngsters that are coming through the Junior All Blacks, formerly known as NZ A (Victor Vito, Robert Fruen, Rene Ranger) as well as other returnees from injury (Richard Kahui) and the odd depth based selection at the key positions of 7 and 10 (Scott Waldrom/George Whitelock, Colin Slade) and all of a sudden there is a very competitive squad.

While the depth in certain positions looks vulnerable in the short term, in the medium to long term this doesn't appears to be such a large problem. The main example would be number 10. There are no clear backups to Dan Carter at the moment, but there is plenty of young talent, both those that have had a genuine taste of Super 14 (Colin Slade, Willie Ripia) and those that are still to come through completely at that level (Daniel Kirkpatrick, Michael Hobbs). If you add in the recently named U20 player of the year Aaron Cruden it is a fair chance that between now and the next World Cup a genuine back up option (or back up options) to Dan Carter should be unearthed.

On top of this the NZ U20s just won the World Championships for a second season running, with only one player (Zac Guilford) returning from the previous years squad.

So while it may be all doom and gloom in the press and public regarding the All Blacks season, the reality would suggest that the All Blacks going forward (Tri Nations, End of year tour and beyond) will be a much different animal to the one that has been seen in the last three tests.