Eight becomes Four
Let me start with the blindingly obvious. It is so much better to make it to the Semi’s than being knocked out in the Quarters. But not only because your cause is still alive, but also because you are guaranteed 2 more games and will see the RWC through to conclusion. Even if you lose your semi, you still have a shot at a consolation bronze medal. Not much of a consolation at the time, but in years to come it is nicer to say you came third than you got dumped out in the Quarters.
So on to those Quarter-final results:
England 40 – 16 Australia
As the scoreline suggests, England were simply too strong for Australia. And while The Wallabies briefly threatened and brought the scores close – half time was 17-9 – the English were simply ruthlessly efficient in shutting Australia out in the second half. It helped them that the Wallabies employed some questionable tactics especially in terms of trying to play from deep in their own half, but ultimately England were simply the better team and deserved winners.
New Zealand 46 – 14 Ireland
The All Blacks swatted the Irish aside like a pesky fly. While not the perfect game from the All Blacks, the word imperious is probably most apt in describing this performance. There really only ever was one team in this contest and perhaps the most surprising part of the game was that the Irish managed to get in 2 tries in the second half.
Wales 20 – 19 France
The Welsh were bot unlucky and extremely lucky in this game. Unlucky because they ran into that enigma of a French team which having previously looked absolute pants, suddenly produced the sort of champagne performance they seem to save for RWC knockout stages. France were absolutely bossing this game until a moment of madness from the French reduced them to 14 players. Yet despite this, they still played well enough to look to have secured a win. And this is where Wales got very lucky. A few ref calls went in their favour and their winning try coming from a ball-rip which may / may not have gone forward.
South Africa 26 – 3 Japan
The Japanese fairytale started 4 years ago with these two teams, so it seemed fitting that it ended here too. A game with a few incidents and lots of complaints from fans on both sides about the refereeing, ultimately the Springboks found the recipe to smother the life out of the Brave Blossoms high-octane game. While the scoreline suggests a convincing victory, this was not secured until well into the second half. The Japanese can hold their heads high. They weren’t content with having made it through to the Quarters for the first time in their history, they truly believed they could win this one and their disappointment at the result is testimony to this.
So, on to the Semi-finals:
England vs New Zealand
The top two form teams of the tournament find themselves facing off one game before the finals. And I expect an epic battle. Eddie Jones has rebuilt England from the ashes of a disastrous previous RWC into a team that knows how to win and don’t fear anyone else. Good set pieces, simple, well structured game plan and some real pace out wide, this team can challenge anyone in world rugby at the moment. Whether they have the beating of the All Blacks though is a different question. The men in black have deservedly been the top team in World rugby for over a decade now. They have without a doubt the most skilled personnel across the park with every single player understanding space, knowing when to take contact and when to off-load, and playing the game at a speed that is probably second only to the Japanese. What will be interesting to see is whether the All Blacks repeat the mistake the Wallabies made against England, by trying to play too deep from their own half. I suspect not. While they rack up big wins, this is not a throw-it-around with abandon team. Structured and clever rugby is the AB hallmark, and my money is on them to win this one.
Wales vs South Africa
Of the four teams left in the competition, these are arguably the weaker two. South Africa have already lost a game in pool play and Wales had to rely on a lot of luck to get past their Q-final. Not that either team will give a damn about that. It’s a semi-final and to the winner goes the chance of getting their hands on the trophy. Wales will probably feel they have their off-day behind them now. A very well-drilled team that likes to play a structured game, Wales will fancy their chances of making their first ever RWC final. The Springboks equally will feel they can win this one. They have a set piece and defence that is amongst the best at the competition. A structured game will suit them well. The big concern though will be the accuracy of the backline players. In knockout rugby they simply can’t afford the sort of unforced errors
@Billy-Webb said:
Of the four teams left in the competition, these are arguably the weaker two.
There's definitely going to be more attention on the other semi. I think that suits South Africa.. the draw opened up for them, the scrutiny is elsewhere.
Wales might put up a fight but SA should put them away quite easily.
The other semi is likely to be a very physical match.
It's South Africa's to lose really. Raging hot favourites for the tournament
@Duluth said in Eight Becomes Four:
@Billy-Webb said:
Of the four teams left in the competition, these are arguably the weaker two.
There's definitely going to be more attention on the other semi. I think that suits South Africa.. the draw opened up for them, the scrutiny is elsewhere.
Wales might put up a fight but SA should put them away quite easily.The other semi is likely to be a very physical match.
It's South Africa's to lose really. Raging hot favourites for the tournament
No!
The Boks are the underdogs. Lowest ranked team still in the competition 
But I do get your point. If and that is a big IF, they can get past Wales, they may be lucky enough to be up against a team that had to give a touch too much in their semi. While SA v Wales will be tough, I am expecting Eng v NZ to be pretty brutal.
@Duluth said in Eight Becomes Four:
@Billy-Webb said:
Of the four teams left in the competition, these are arguably the weaker two.
There's definitely going to be more attention on the other semi. I think that suits South Africa.. the draw opened up for them, the scrutiny is elsewhere.
Wales might put up a fight but SA should put them away quite easily.The other semi is likely to be a very physical match.
It's South Africa's to lose really. Raging hot favourites for the tournament
Almost an asterisk title if they get up ?
@voodoo said in Eight Becomes Four:
@Duluth said in Eight Becomes Four:
@Billy-Webb said:
Of the four teams left in the competition, these are arguably the weaker two.
There's definitely going to be more attention on the other semi. I think that suits South Africa.. the draw opened up for them, the scrutiny is elsewhere.
Wales might put up a fight but SA should put them away quite easily.The other semi is likely to be a very physical match.
It's South Africa's to lose really. Raging hot favourites for the tournament
Almost an asterisk title if they get up ?
@Duluth said in Eight Becomes Four:
@voodoo said in Eight Becomes Four:
Almost an asterisk title if they get up ?
Just like 2007
If that is what it takes for the Boks to get title no. 3 I will happily accept.
Neck on line.
Favourites are NZ and SA
England are fit and raring to go. England to sneak it.
Wales played shit in the QF.
If all personnel - read Navidi and J Davies - are fit then Wales won't fear SA.
We've beaten them in our last three meetings.
England v Wales final
@MiketheSnow said in Eight Becomes Four:
Neck on line.
Favourites are NZ and SA
England are fit and raring to go. England to sneak it.
Wales played shit in the QF.
If all personnel - read Navidi and J Davies - are fit then Wales won't fear SA.
We've beaten them in our last three meetings.
England v Wales final
Head or heart?
And while I am merrily bantering away about a possible SA v NZ final, there is the small matter of England and Wales.
It could well be that we see the first ever NH vs NH final. History making on its own plus the fact that it will be the first time Wales have made it to the final. And I am not in anyway writing that option off. I reckon Wales are delighted that they are facing the Boks and not England or NZ. The Boks don't come with any surprises. You know what you're going to get and it simply becomes a matter of executing better than them on the day.
@booboo said in Eight Becomes Four:
@MiketheSnow said in Eight Becomes Four:
Neck on line.
Favourites are NZ and SA
England are fit and raring to go. England to sneak it.
Wales played shit in the QF.
If all personnel - read Navidi and J Davies - are fit then Wales won't fear SA.
We've beaten them in our last three meetings.
England v Wales final
Head or heart?
Both
@booboo said in Eight Becomes Four:
@MiketheSnow said in Eight Becomes Four:
Neck on line.
Favourites are NZ and SA
England are fit and raring to go. England to sneak it.
Wales played shit in the QF.
If all personnel - read Navidi and J Davies - are fit then Wales won't fear SA.
We've beaten them in our last three meetings.
England v Wales final
Head or heart?
That has to be heart.
If Wales make it to the final, they'd much rather face England who they know how to beat.
They have yet to unlock that mystery against the ABs.
@voodoo said in Eight Becomes Four:
Come on. All Blacks v Springboks, 100th test match.
It's written in the stars.
And this has been a RWC of fairytales so YES.
Complete with the happy ending for the boys in Green.
@Billy-Webb said in Eight Becomes Four:
@booboo said in Eight Becomes Four:
@MiketheSnow said in Eight Becomes Four:
Neck on line.
Favourites are NZ and SA
England are fit and raring to go. England to sneak it.
Wales played shit in the QF.
If all personnel - read Navidi and J Davies - are fit then Wales won't fear SA.
We've beaten them in our last three meetings.
England v Wales final
Head or heart?
That has to be heart.
If Wales make it to the final, they'd much rather face England who they know how to beat.
They have yet to unlock that mystery against the ABs.
Exactly.
NZ are beatable. England are good enough.
SA are beatable. Wales knows how to beat them.
If it's an England v Wales final, we know how to beat England.
If it's an NZ v Wales final, we don't.
Both NZ and SA are 1.33 favs. That feels right for SA, but I'd have us closer to 1.60.
If the AB's make to the final, I'd say we would be 1.30 against the Boks and 1.15 v Wales.
Not saying those odds are right, just where I reckon the bookies would pitch it.
I'd have us at 1.60 v the Boks and 1.03 v Wales
(Sorry @MiketheSnow ...) ?
@Billy-Webb said in Eight Becomes Four:
@voodoo said in Eight Becomes Four:
Come on. All Blacks v Springboks, 100th test match.
It's written in the stars.
And this has been a RWC of fairytales so YES.
Complete with the happy ending for the boys in Green.
Aarrrghhh, where is my downvote button!!!
@voodoo yeah sorry. It was all going along so nicely until the last bit wasn't it 
What no-one has raised yet is the extra recovery day for either NZ or England for the final.
Clearly that is another irrefutable sign of how NZ gets favoured by world rugby :face_with_stuck-out_tongue_winking_eye:
My tabloid-eque dig aside: I think that extra day will be valuable for either NZ or England. Not massive, but nicer to have than not have.
@voodoo said in Eight Becomes Four:
Both NZ and SA are 1.33 favs. That feels right for SA, but I'd have us closer to 1.60.
If the AB's make to the final, I'd say we would be 1.30 against the Boks and 1.15 v Wales.
Not saying those odds are right, just where I reckon the bookies would pitch it.
I'd have us at 1.60 v the Boks and 1.03 v Wales
(Sorry Mike...) ?
With who? NZ TAB is always going to be shorter for NZ due to the predilection for NZers to get on NZ.
Boks should be nervous. We've never made it to the final without an upset along the way and the quarters all went with the favourites.
Wales have all the major hallmarks of a team ready to pull a major RWC upset... experienced, written off a bit more than they should be, canny coach - except for being Welsh.
@rotated said in Eight Becomes Four:
Boks should be nervous. We've never made it to the final without an upset along the way and the quarters all went with the favourites.
Wales have all the major hallmarks of a team ready to pull a major RWC upset... experienced, written off a bit more than they should be, canny coach - except for being Welsh.
Ermm... why would Wales beating the Boks be an upset?
As @MiketheSnow has pointed out, Wales have beaten SA the last 3 times the teams met.
And Wales were recent world no.1 while the Boks were recent World no.6 or 7.
I think the upset would be the Boks beating Wales.
Of course if you're looking for a real upset result, isn't it better to look at the other semi?
@rotated said in Eight Becomes Four:
Boks should be nervous. We've never made it to the final without an upset along the way and the quarters all went with the favourites.
Wales have all the major hallmarks of a team ready to pull a major RWC upset... experienced, written off a bit more than they should be, canny coach - except for being Welsh.
Thankfully we have some canny Kiwis and English to supplement our DNA defficiency
@Billy-Webb said in Eight Becomes Four:
Ermm... why would Wales beating the Boks be an upset?
Because I can place a bet on Wales at $3.30 to win?
@rotated said in Eight Becomes Four:
@Billy-Webb said in Eight Becomes Four:
Ermm... why would Wales beating the Boks be an upset?
Because I can place a bet on Wales at $3.30 to win?
The bookies have the Boks ahead of Wales?!
That's a good bet. I'd take it.
Both teams have been a little poor. Wales looked really tight against France, they really should have put that game away. And SA were brutal in defense, but pretty bloody average in attack, hands were average and Faf's kicking was sub-par.
One of these 2 teams will get it right on the
w/e. My money would be on SA.
@voodoo said in Eight Becomes Four:
Both teams have been a little poor. Wales looked really tight against France, they really should have put that game away. And SA were brutal in defense, but pretty bloody average in attack, hands were average and Faf's kicking was sub-par.
One of these 2 teams will get it right on the
w/e. My money would be on SA.
And Navidi went off early and J Davies didn't lace up.
Both of those back in and no YC and we're a very different proposition.
As SA know.
@MiketheSnow said in Eight Becomes Four:
@voodoo said in Eight Becomes Four:
Both teams have been a little poor. Wales looked really tight against France, they really should have put that game away. And SA were brutal in defense, but pretty bloody average in attack, hands were average and Faf's kicking was sub-par.
One of these 2 teams will get it right on the
w/e. My money would be on SA.And Navidi went off early and J Davies didn't lace up.
Both of those back in and no YC and we're a very different proposition.
As SA know.
Or no RC for France???
@MiketheSnow said in Eight Becomes Four:
And Navidi went off early and J Davies didn't lace up.
Both of those back in and no YC and we're a very different proposition.
As SA know.
Navidi is out. Going home.
@mariner4life said in Eight Becomes Four:
South Africa v Wales will he brutal trench warfare, no chance the winner is less softened up than the winner of NZ v England.
South Africa had to do a heap of work last night as well, probably as much as us.
Can't see any real advantage to anyone.
But the Bok blouses will likely be well rested. Don't expect the ball to go much past Faf.
@Billy-Webb said in Eight Becomes Four:
@MiketheSnow said in Eight Becomes Four:
And Navidi went off early and J Davies didn't lace up.
Both of those back in and no YC and we're a very different proposition.
As SA know.
Navidi is out. Going home.
Fuck
@MiketheSnow yeah, that's a real shame for Wales. And I say that genuinely even though it helps my Boks. I think Wales have a long-term star there. Kak end to the tournie for the player too.
@Billy-Webb The word "kak" has to be one the greatest gifts SA has given us. That and "tackies" (or takkies?), and "oke" for the lads.
Well, if (IF) we manage to negotiate NZ in the semi I am torn as to who I would want in the final. On the one hand I would dearly love for an all NH final and I would also very much like for Wales to get to the final. However, what if we were to lose? Could I take the Celtic backlash for the next 150 years?
and @MiketheSnow Navidi is certainly a loss but Moriarty is a pretty good replacement and more of an out and out 8 (providing he keeps his hands in his pocket that is).
@Blackheart said in Eight Becomes Four:
It's going to be a classic old fashioned traditional Wales v All Blacks final..along the lines of the All Blacks v Lllanelli game in '72 except the All blacks will win 8-3...you heard it here first.
Where do I sign up?