NZ fans overconfident?

@Machpants said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Chris-B yeah that's gotta be our rawist backline in a world cup knock out for a few tournaments

I imagine losing circa 300 caps would do that.

@nzzp said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

Not an ambush, but we played really poorly. We weren't allowed to play well, but we really didn't cope with the rush defence, and our forwards were really really passive.

In other words, we were crap.

@KiwiMurph said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I'd rather see ALB at 13 and Crotty in the 23.

I would have stuck with the Crotty-ALB combo and had SBW on the bench again. Goodhue still looked rusty as against Namibia.

@Bovidae said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@KiwiMurph said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I'd rather see ALB at 13 and Crotty in the 23.

I would have stuck with the Crotty-ALB combo and had SBW on the bench again. Goodhue still looked rusty as against Namibia.

I thought that is how they would go , wasnt sure goodhue was back to his best in time either , maybe the coaches know more

@bayimports said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

So supposedly a source close to the team have passed on to a mate (and so on)...so take with a grain of salt*.. Anyway they believe that unless injury occurs the team was announced internally yesterday.

1 Moody 2 Taylor 3 Laulala 4 Brodie 5 Whitelock 6 Savea 7 Cane 8 Read
9 Smith 10 Mounga 11 Bridge 12 ALB 13 Goodhue 14 Reece 15 B Barrett

16 Coles 17 Ta’avao 18 (only one couldnt remember) 19 S Barrett 20 Todd
21 TJ 22 SBW 23 J. Barrett

Lets see later in the week, but a few talking points for sure.

• to their credit, they did predict the first team exactly, but I still have no idea who the source is. However sharing for the fun of it anyway

Someone told me Jordie was getting plenty of love as they trotted out for training , so that adds up if true

@Bovidae said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@KiwiMurph said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I'd rather see ALB at 13 and Crotty in the 23.

I would have stuck with the Crotty-ALB combo and had SBW on the bench again. Goodhue still looked rusty as against Namibia.

I prefer SBW to start, which also provides a bit less disruption off the bench should injury occur.

Talking of Nigel Owens, any UK Ferners caught his Citroen ad? When I first saw it I wondered why the guy was so familiar, then It clicked.

@Bones said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I prefer SBW to start, which also provides a bit less disruption off the bench should injury occur.

Maybe that is why they don't want Crotty and SBW in the 23 together. It's written in their contract.

In the SA game, Goodhue wasn't 100% so they didn't have much choice.

One advantage of Goodhue (although i agree he still looked off the pace a little against Namibia) is his combination with Bridge and Reece.

@reprobate said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

Last time I saw this much confidence here was just before the Aussies smashed us to bits.

Ireland are a good side, who lack depth at 10. We seem to think they're shit now because they were beaten by Japan and thumped by England before the WC. But both games no Sexton. You can't play 10 man rugby without a 10.
They whipped Scotland and looked good against Samoa - they're not a spent force and they've beaten us 2 out of last 3. The Dublin game was one which we targeted to get payback for the first loss, and we scored 9 points and were well beaten.
Now I see Coles in the Herald saying 'we haven't talked about what happened last time'. Sounds a bit too much like Cheika not worrying about the opposition to me.

As for us, our best forward is underdone, and our reserve scrummaging has looked a bit shaky. I don't think Cane is back to his best, and we lack the grunt to bend set defensive lines. We have beaten South Africa, and had a couple of pretty meaningless cakewalks vs minnows, that's all. There's obviously a lot of potential in the Mounga Barrett axis, but I don't consider it proven under pressure just yet, and we have inexperienced wings who we know will be targeted in the air. Our centre has been out injured and the 12-13 combo lacks match time together.
Underdogs, clearly.

Glad we have Owens compared to some other options, but he's been below his usual high standards this cup, letting too much go at the breakdown and offside line which will suit the Irish. He is however the least likely to give a panicky dodgy shit red card.

I agree with this, am nowhere near as confident as some. The betting markets are a bit silly. I emotionally hedged by backing Ireland @ $5.70. And yes, I hate myself.

@reprobate said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

Ireland are a good side, who lack depth at 10. We seem to think they're shit now because they were beaten by Japan and thumped by England before the WC. But both games no Sexton. You can't play 10 man rugby without a 10.

They lost to England and Wales this year in the 6N with Sexton, both significant losses on the scoreboard too. If you look at both games they were full strength or thereabouts yet were bullied.

@TeWaio I don't know you anymore

@mofitzy_ said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@reprobate said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

Ireland are a good side, who lack depth at 10. We seem to think they're shit now because they were beaten by Japan and thumped by England before the WC. But both games no Sexton. You can't play 10 man rugby without a 10.

They lost to England and Wales this year in the 6N with Sexton, both significant losses on the scoreboard too. If you look at both games they were full strength or thereabouts yet were bullied.

Yep, is our form so much better? That Welsh game is why the Irish hate Gardner incidentally, 1 try each but Anscombe kicked 6 penalties.

@reprobate out of interest, what does the RM/BB axis have to do to be proven?

I am feeling more nervous than most about this game.
We have had a pretty crap year, got hammered by Aus, drew with the Boks, beat Argentina by just 4.
Beaten by Ireland last 2out of 3 times we played.
I think people have very short memories. Was only a few months ago that it was all doom and gloom. Now we beat the Boks, and a couple tier 2 nations and we are favorites again?

If we can score some quick points we should be ok, but a grinding close game, has to be advantage Ireland.

And now you get a red card for just making eye contact with someone....
I'm excited for this game, but just not as confident as most people I guess.

@Darren said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I am feeling more nervous than most about this game.
We have had a pretty crap year, got hammered by Aus, drew with the Boks, beat Argentina by just 4.
Beaten by Ireland last 2out of 3 times we played.
I think people have very short memories. Was only a few months ago that it was all doom and gloom. Now we beat the Boks, and a couple tier 2 nations and we are favorites again?

If we can score some quick points we should be ok, but a grinding close game, has to be advantage Ireland.

And now you get a red card for just making eye contact with someone....
I'm excited for this game, but just not as confident as most people I guess.

For whom?

@Bones said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Darren said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I am feeling more nervous than most about this game.
We have had a pretty crap year, got hammered by Aus, drew with the Boks, beat Argentina by just 4.
Beaten by Ireland last 2out of 3 times we played.
I think people have very short memories. Was only a few months ago that it was all doom and gloom. Now we beat the Boks, and a couple tier 2 nations and we are favorites again?

If we can score some quick points we should be ok, but a grinding close game, has to be advantage Ireland.

And now you get a red card for just making eye contact with someone....
I'm excited for this game, but just not as confident as most people I guess.

For whom?

You don't remember after we lost to Aus? I'm sure you could go back and read what people were saying.

@Darren said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Bones said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Darren said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I am feeling more nervous than most about this game.
We have had a pretty crap year, got hammered by Aus, drew with the Boks, beat Argentina by just 4.
Beaten by Ireland last 2out of 3 times we played.
I think people have very short memories. Was only a few months ago that it was all doom and gloom. Now we beat the Boks, and a couple tier 2 nations and we are favorites again?

If we can score some quick points we should be ok, but a grinding close game, has to be advantage Ireland.

And now you get a red card for just making eye contact with someone....
I'm excited for this game, but just not as confident as most people I guess.

For whom?

You don't remember after we lost to Aus? I'm sure you could go back and read what people were saying.

Well it wasn't for me.

It's simply this - we're going to get beaten sometimes. Probably particularly more likely in the year or so leading up to the RWC, when the coaches/selectors are looking at various things they wouldn't necessarily be in the years before that. But if as an AB fan you can't be decently confident of success, after what we've seen the last ten years and looking at what/how the team has been building this year - when can you be?

We might lose, but I'll be surprised if we do.

@canefan said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@rotated said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@canefan said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@sparky said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

We avoid Barnes and Garces.

No complaints with Nigel Owens officiating of the All Blacks to date.

Wasn't Owens in charge against SA in SA when they bypassed protocol on a try decision when it screened at the ground?

That was Clancy.

Owens had the Wellington test last year and one of the tests with Donald at 10 in 2009. Maybe one more Bledisloe loss in there somewhere?

Clancy, the Irishman with the French name? Figures

Jesus Christ

@Frye said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@canefan said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@rotated said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@canefan said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@sparky said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

We avoid Barnes and Garces.

No complaints with Nigel Owens officiating of the All Blacks to date.

Wasn't Owens in charge against SA in SA when they bypassed protocol on a try decision when it screened at the ground?

That was Clancy.

Owens had the Wellington test last year and one of the tests with Donald at 10 in 2009. Maybe one more Bledisloe loss in there somewhere?

Clancy, the Irishman with the French name? Figures

Jesus Christ

They probably all look the same to him.

@reprobate said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@mofitzy_ said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@reprobate said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

Ireland are a good side, who lack depth at 10. We seem to think they're shit now because they were beaten by Japan and thumped by England before the WC. But both games no Sexton. You can't play 10 man rugby without a 10.

They lost to England and Wales this year in the 6N with Sexton, both significant losses on the scoreboard too. If you look at both games they were full strength or thereabouts yet were bullied.

Yep, is our form so much better? That Welsh game is why the Irish hate Gardner incidentally, 1 try each but Anscombe kicked 6 penalties.

When was the last time we lost 4 games in a calendar year? Agree that our form isn't brilliant but going on recent results they are in a worse position.

Also, no team has won the thing without winning all their pool games right? We might as well take that record too.

@reprobate Our reserve props concern me. Ofa at tighthead is fine but not sure he's good enough on the other side. Angus as a scrummager is average. Ofa at TH and Big Karl would have been better bench options imo.

@akan004 I agree, Iv'e thought this since the team was named. I would feel a lot safer with them coming on to close out a game, or even one of them with Owen Franks, especially against the likes of England.

The teams from the 2018 test to compare with this weeks teams when they are named. The AB's could have as many as 8 personal and 2 positional changes in the starting xv from that game.

@Daffy-Jaffy said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@akan004 I agree, Iv'e thought this since the team was named. I would feel a lot safer with them coming on to close out a game, or even one of them with Owen Franks, especially against the likes of England.

So you rate Marler and Genge that highly?

@Bones Its more my worries about Ofa's inexperience at loosehead and Ta'avao's history of inconsistent scrummaging (they are both very tall for props 194 and 195) being targeted by experienced props getting under them and causing us problems and risking penalties. England seem to be aiming to start with Marler and Sinckler and then finish with Vunipola and Coles? Hopefully they prove me wrong and Angus scores the winning try in the final!

@Daffy-Jaffy I have no problem with the rest of their games (carrying, defence, lineout) they are both excellent) it is only re the scrum. While I understand how they suit the desired game plan I was just a bit uncomfortable with leaving effectively our two best scrummagers (Franks and Karl T) at home. In Cron we trust I guess. Anyway Lets get past Ireland first before we worry about the Poms (he said taking a a deep breath and crossing his fingers).

@Daffy-Jaffy said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Daffy-Jaffy I have no problem with the rest of their games (carrying, defence, lineout) they are both excellent) it is only re the scrum. While I understand how they suit the desired game plan I was just a bit uncomfortable with leaving effectively our two best scrummagers (Franks and Karl T) at home. In Cron we trust I guess. Anyway Lets get past Ireland first before we worry about the Poms (he said taking a a deep breath and crossing his fingers).

That said, Owen and Karl didn't do that much for us in Dublin last year!

@Daffy-Jaffy said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Daffy-Jaffy I have no problem with the rest of their games (carrying, defence, lineout) they are both excellent) it is only re the scrum. While I understand how they suit the desired game plan I was just a bit uncomfortable with leaving effectively our two best scrummagers (Franks and Karl T) at home. In Cron we trust I guess. Anyway Lets get past Ireland first before we worry about the Poms (he said taking a a deep breath and crossing his fingers).

I can understand that, however I don't see Ta'avao and Tungafasi that far behind their peers if at all. Plus, just what is so great about Franks' scrummaging these days? Dare I say it, it's a bit of a myth these days...

@pakman not as starters around the field which is why they are not there under the new game plan I guess. Like I said In Cron we trust.

@Darren said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I think people have very short memories. Was only a few months ago that it was all doom and gloom. Now we beat the Boks, and a couple tier 2 nations and we are favorites again?

If the ABs lose on Sunday the last 4 years (especially Lions series onwards) will be revised pretty quickly. In 1999 at the QF stage we had smacked England in pool play following 3/4 good performances in the 3N. The general consensus was that the 1998 duldrums were a road bump and it was business as usual.

I worry the same thing this time. What passage of quality rugby have they played against strong opposition in the past 12 months? The Eden Park Bledisloe and 20 minutes against the Boks?

At least in 2003 there was a mountain of evidence to show they had turned the corner.

@Bones said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@reprobate out of interest, what does the RM/BB axis have to do to be proven?

What more did Cullen need to do to look good as a centre?

I personally think having Owens increases our chances of winning by about 5 %. Really couldn't have wanted for a better choice TBH.

I agree with the above that Ireland have no chance if Sexton doesn't last or has a mare.

I hope we have a fielding box kicks plan - if you do that part well, you get buckets of free possession from Ireland.

I kind of sit on the fence a bit with this WC ,

A win or a disappointing exit would not surprise me that much,

I will always back us in, but im not over confident ,

England probably bother me more than Ireland , but lets get past this week first( fingers crossed ) before we talk about that

@rotated said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Bones said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@reprobate out of interest, what does the RM/BB axis have to do to be proven?

What more did Cullen need to do to look good as a centre?

Thanks reprobate. No idea what that has to do with it.

@Bones said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@rotated said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Bones said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@reprobate out of interest, what does the RM/BB axis have to do to be proven?

What more did Cullen need to do to look good as a centre?

Thanks reprobate. No idea what that has to do with it.

Cullen and the backline showed glimpses in 1999. It wasn't everyone's cup of tea but wasn't an unmitigated disaster... until it was.

Just like every other unconvnetional selection if they play well and win dual pivots will have proven itself, if they play poor and lose in the QF/SF then they won't have done enough. Simple really.

@mofitzy_ said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@reprobate said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@mofitzy_ said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@reprobate said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

Ireland are a good side, who lack depth at 10. We seem to think they're shit now because they were beaten by Japan and thumped by England before the WC. But both games no Sexton. You can't play 10 man rugby without a 10.

They lost to England and Wales this year in the 6N with Sexton, both significant losses on the scoreboard too. If you look at both games they were full strength or thereabouts yet were bullied.

Yep, is our form so much better? That Welsh game is why the Irish hate Gardner incidentally, 1 try each but Anscombe kicked 6 penalties.

When was the last time we lost 4 games in a calendar year? Agree that our form isn't brilliant but going on recent results they are in a worse position.

2009?

BTW ironically we can't lose 4 this year unless we win this week.

Edit: hang on. We've only lost once so far this year. Was thinking Welly v Bokke was a loss.

@rotated said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

@Darren said in RWC: All Blacks v Ireland (QF2):

I think people have very short memories. Was only a few months ago that it was all doom and gloom. Now we beat the Boks, and a couple tier 2 nations and we are favorites again?

If the ABs lose on Sunday the last 4 years (especially Lions series onwards) will be revised pretty quickly. In 1999 at the QF stage we had smacked England in pool play following 3/4 good performances in the 3N. The general consensus was that the 1998 duldrums were a road bump and it was business as usual.

I worry the same thing this time. What passage of quality rugby have they played against strong opposition in the past 12 months? The Eden Park Bledisloe and 20 minutes against the Boks?

At least in 2003 there was a mountain of evidence to show they had turned the corner.

And how good had we looked 2004-2007?

History is an unreliable indicator of future performance.