Recent selection philosophy & the consequences
I wanted to discuss this trap the All Black selectors have seemingly fallen victim to over the past 3-4 years.
It's this philosophy that seems to be a continuation of Hansen & Foster's 2018-2019 season's mantra of attempting to cram as many of their best or flashiest players into a starting line-up, while completely disregarding the detrimental effect this has on the team's overall balance & the bench.
Playing Savea at 6/8, selecting two Spencer-like players in McKenzie & B.Barrett for their dual-playmaker axis in 2018 over Mo'unga, etc.
Intro summary: My biggest issue with Ian Foster's 23-man squad selections, particularly regarding team balance and the distinct differences between the roles & ideal requirements for starting vs bench/impact players.
Number one. Undersized at 15 and 8, are the All Black's main points of concern going forward for me.
There are serious team balance issues where I believe Savea & Jacobson's (and likewise McKenzie & J.Barret's) roles are back-to-front. Savea should be used predominantly as an impact player injected against tired legs. McKenzie is another who's impact is far more effectively bottled for when exploiting tiring defenses later-on during physical, highly attritional test matches.
Savea at just 99kg, is far too lightweight for an international 8, he's more effective at 7, (& most at 20 jersey).
Ideally, he should be used as our impact loosie (since Cane & Papali'i are more effective starting test-match 7's from a defensive and collision aspect), the same issue applies for DMac.
Damien is simply not physical enough (neither Offensively or Defensively) for starting at test-level. He runs sideways; gets rag-dolled, and the opposition backline are delighted upon sighting his name on the All Black's starting team-list.
McKenzie is not an international starting fullback full-stop, he's too short, too lightweight and looses the ball in the collision far too often. And he constantly gets isolated, as he often runs away from his support players.
Play him against tier-two opponents and he looks a million dollars, play him against big imposing physical sides and he'll get flattened, time and again.
The Argentina game where the All Black's under-sized backrow got demolished by Matera & Co, is a glaring example of Savea's ineffectiveness at 8.. Ireland 2018, England 2018 & 2019, are other notable examples.
Ardie doesn't make the meters at 8 he does at SR level - and if he isn't making meters what's the point? He's not particularly adept at any of the other stuff an 8 does. He's not a line-out option either.
For some perspective.. my current preference for All Black's #8 would probably be:
- Akira Ioane
- Luke Jacobson
- Ethan Blackadder
- Hoskins Sotutu/Dalton Papali'i (even out of position!)
- (Daylight)
- Ardie Savea..
As great as Ardie is in terms of highlights at Super Rugby level - there's always significant question marks over his effectiveness against physical packs at test-level. He started at 7 vs England in the RWC Semi and offered nothing.
(Like McKenzie starting in the back-three) Ardie ruins the balance of the starting back-row. He's playing 8, yet he's only 100 kg. Go look at the matches he played off the bench from 2016-2018, he always had a far more effective impact from the 20 jersey. Very similar to the impact role an 102kg Pete Samu used to carry out for the Crusaders during those 2017/2018 winning seasons.
Savea & Cane are too small players (103kg vs 100kg) to both start. It destroys the balance of the back-row, as did the Hooper/Pocock combination. Unfortunately, the clueless Foster and Plumtree view Cane & Savea as our starting 7 and 8's going forward (at least) until the 2023 World Cup. Jacobson should be starting 8, Ardie 20.
Now onto my other issue, swapping the current roles of McKenzie & J.Barrett under Foster (for much the same reason for wanting Savea & Jacobsen roles being reversed).
DMac is a great player, awesome to watch, but as a starting test-fullback he's a liability, particularly on defense where he's constantly found out of position, and left scrambling to make last man tackles. He's not big enough & doesn't have long enough levers to be our last-line of defense at the back. On attack, he's as unpredictable to his own backline as he is to the opposition. His incessant dancing around behind his own players only allows the opposition time to reset a defensive line that doesn't have to worry too much about DMac passing, because there's no-one to pass to. If there are no gaps, you're not going to create one by running around in circles, run straight and draw defenders. At least in Jordie you have a fullback who will commit defenders. Jordie has the better boot, is better in the air, and a better defender. He will also fit in to a dual-playmaker role if required, as he plays 10 for the Hurricanes most of the time anyway..
I don't like Jordie at 15 because of his goal kicking, that's just a bonus in certain situations. I like him there because he has the key attributes that you really can't do without as a test-level 15 these days - outstanding under the high-ball and physically really strong on defense. Two things that Dmac lacks which is why I see him as a squad member or bench player at best.
When in-form, Jordie also has a strong (not fast) running game and can put his outsides away when the opportunities arise. He has the potential to be world-class in that position, however last season after he dominated Super Rugby there the coaches inexplicably out him on the wing which utilizes precisely none of his strengths. It's the 2nd dumbest selection I've ever seen (first being benching Cane in the semi) and it ruined his confidence.
With David Havili's creativity at 12, he's a 2nd-playermaker in this backline.. surely we do need yet another creative 2nd-playmaker fullback like McKenzie there as well? A bigger more powerful straight running fullback for consistently making it over the advantage-line when the team is going backwards, (Jordie's 100kg frame would be useful for straightening-up the attack & squaring up the opposition's defensive line) would be a better fit in a backline that currently features predominantly lateral/sideways runners in ALB, Havili, McKenzie, Reece, etc..
Damien is definitely not the type of player we want at fullback right now, especially in an era of ever-increasing physicality & needing domination of the advantage line.
McKenzie doesn't get proper go-forward, when you're going backwards, he runs sideways and isolates himself from his support players, commonly resulting in turnovers.
Running backwards & sideways, shuffling the ball on to the next man is insufficient to be an All Black first choice fullback. Poor passes, kicking out on the full, losing possession in contact, not releasing the ball in a tackle situation, etc, etc..
Jordie is a straight runner who gets huge go-forward & creates momentum shifts for his team when the Hurricanes are regularly getting bullied up-front physically & dominated at the advantage line. Jordie makes huge post-contact metres every time he carries.
He does the trench work for the Hurricanes, strongest NZ back-three player defensively, regularly makes turnovers on defense, holds people up, carries hard, physically dominant & he uses this to get his Canes out of tricky situations when they're going backwards - and that's regularly.
I prefer DMac as a 10, height is more valuable in the back-three & Jordie has a more ideal skillset for an international fullback. DMac's helter-skelter style is better suited for blasting teams off the bench. Jordie Barrett's size & physicality is better suited for starting test matches. Sam Cane starting with Ardie Savea off the bench was a similar dynamic than worked extremely well for the All Blacks. It's like with forwards how you ideally start your big abrasive physical guys & inject the nimble scuttlers once the contest has really tightened-up & the opposition forwards are tiring-out, therefore ripe for getting scorched by (more aptly-designed 'bench specialists') - being much smaller, more agile & light-footed players - such as McKenzie.
In conclusion... Ian Foster needs to seriously consider the differences in the roles & requirements between starting and bench/impact players and how important it is to get this balance right at international level.
@kiwi_expat said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
Savea at just 99kg
I have a bridge to sell you....
Edit: And another...
He's not a line-out option either
@mantissanet said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
Can’t leave Ardie out… he is mad good. What he lacks in beef at 8 is only measured on a scale IMO.
And at 15 you guys are spoilt fullstop….I wouldn’t moan too much
In the last 3-4 years Hansen, (& by extension Foster) have been afraid of making tough calls at 10, 12/13, in the back-row, back-three, etc.. at the risk of damaging egos have been forced to strike a compromise by selecting certain players out of position rather than benching them.
It should be one or the other, but Foster is sentimental with certain players & is seemingly too afraid to make tough calls, hence he'd rather play someone like Ardie or Beauden out of position than potentially damage some egos by dropping them to the reserves (playing in different roles which could potentially be more beneficial towards the team's overall performance).
Having 4 play-makers (B.Barrett, McKenzie J.Barrett, Mo'unga) all in the same 23 is completely unnecessary & hurts the balance of the team.
@kiwi_expat Apparently you don’t seem too keen on settled combos?? If players aren’t playing as combos together regularly… some brilliant individual skills will invariably be lost don’t you think?….ok …apologies … ignore….?
12-13 rules here. And the speed he offers to them is unquantifiable IMO
@kiwi_expat said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@mantissanet said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
Can’t leave Ardie out… he is mad good. What he lacks in beef at 8 is only measured on a scale IMO.
And at 15 you guys are spoilt fullstop….I wouldn’t moan too muchIn the last 3-4 years Hansen, (& by extension Foster) have been afraid of making tough calls at 10, 12/13, in the back-row, back-three, etc.. at the risk of damaging egos have been forced to strike a compromise by selecting certain players out of position rather than benching them.
It should be one or the other, but Foster is sentimental with certain players & is seemingly too afraid to make tough calls, hence he'd rather play someone like Ardie or Beauden out of position than potentially damage some egos by dropping them to the reserves (playing in different roles which could potentially be more beneficial towards the team's overall performance).
Having 4 play-makers (B.Barrett, McKenzie J.Barrett, Mo'unga) all in the same 23 is completely unnecessary & hurts the balance of the team.
When do we stop saying Ardie is “out of position” at no.8 when he has played more there for the Canes and ABs in the last 3 seasons than he has at openside.
I seriously think that last week and this team some of the selections are forced on us because of injury and game fitness.
Just on the playmakers, let’s not forget that Hansen also played Carter, Cruden and Beaudie all in the same 22/23 on several occasions. Add in Bender and Dagg who also liked to come into the line to create/play make also. That was pretty successful.
@kiwi_expat sounds like you have Jordies cock stuck down your throat. Open the other eye and look at the good Dmac does and the mistakes that Jordie makes for once you guys. Neither are perfect, neither are bad players. Both have their different attributes. The coach deems one as the better fit #15 for our team. And that coach knows a bit more about rugby than the rest of us.
I’m sick of some of you eye-patch “supporters” hating on certain players and cherry picking everything about them. Look at them from a fair perspective and open the other eye. The person you put on a pedi stool makes a shit load of mistakes too but you would never acknowledge it because it doesn’t support your agenda.
That has been my Ted talk.
@yeahtheboys said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
pedi stool
I think this is the highest value offering from your post. I want one.
@mantissanet said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
Can’t leave Ardie out… he is mad good.
And that's exactly the problem isn't it. Foster knows he is good, as we all do, but sticking him in at the starting 8 just to get him on the field isn't the right answer when its detrimental to the balance of the team.
Good post @kiwi_expat - totally agree
@bones said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@yeahtheboys said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
pedi stool
I think this is the highest value offering from your post. I want one.
Pedi (foot) stool
@bones said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@billy-tell this guy flaunting his higher education
English 6th Form Certificate - Final Exam, third term: All Blacks (30 points)
Candidates are required to discuss the following topic "Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..)"
Candidates have 60 minutes in which to formulate their response. Word limit 1000 words. Marks will be awarded for clear structure, original ideas and sound reasoning. Any references must be cited at the end of the essay. Black or blue-point pen only. Any corrections should be clearly indicated.
Yeah nah.
@billy-tell said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@bones said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@billy-tell this guy flaunting his higher education
English 6th Form Certificate - Final Exam, third term: All Blacks (30 points)
Candidates are required to discuss the following topic "Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..)"
Candidates have 60 minutes in which to formulate their response. Word limit 1000 words. Marks will be awarded for clear structure, original ideas and sound reasoning. Any references must be cited at the end of the essay. Black or blue-point pen only. Any corrections should be clearly indicated.
Yeah nah.
NCEA 2 old man ?
@machpants said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@billy-tell said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@bones said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@billy-tell this guy flaunting his higher education
English 6th Form Certificate - Final Exam, third term: All Blacks (30 points)
Candidates are required to discuss the following topic "Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..)"
Candidates have 60 minutes in which to formulate their response. Word limit 1000 words. Marks will be awarded for clear structure, original ideas and sound reasoning. Any references must be cited at the end of the essay. Black or blue-point pen only. Any corrections should be clearly indicated.
Yeah nah.
NCEA 2 old man ?
Is that the new system where you get a little gold star and a “good work” sticker for participating?
@billy-tell said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@machpants said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@billy-tell said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@bones said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@billy-tell this guy flaunting his higher education
English 6th Form Certificate - Final Exam, third term: All Blacks (30 points)
Candidates are required to discuss the following topic "Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..)"
Candidates have 60 minutes in which to formulate their response. Word limit 1000 words. Marks will be awarded for clear structure, original ideas and sound reasoning. Any references must be cited at the end of the essay. Black or blue-point pen only. Any corrections should be clearly indicated.
Yeah nah.
NCEA 2 old man ?
Is that the new system where you get a little gold star and a “good work” sticker for participating?
And you can't use red pen to mark it.
Both my boys have passed this year already (level 1 and 3), and they've not even sat their externals. Easy life
@yeahtheboys said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
I’m sick of some of you eye-patch “supporters” hating on certain players and cherry picking everything about them.
I don't think that's the case though. @kiwi_expat has clearly set out why he thinks both Ardie and DMac are undersized. Not being parochial at all - but assessing what they see in the game.
I don't disagree. Jordie's size and boot offers something different. We should be looking at how we'll go against physically confrontational teams - and when you get into that battle (on a good day England, SA, Lions, Aus , France) then size does become important. So I have sympathy for the view -and I think DMac brings a lot to the table, particularly off the bench. You can't coach speed, and he's got it.
DMac’s best position is probably 10, not that different a player than RM. awesome with front foot ball, probably edges RM at super level at kicking a team around the park.
Neither has shown that ability at Test level, but score or set up exciting trys. If plan A doesn’t work, cupboard is bare.
Similar goal kicking too.
@bones said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@yeahtheboys said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
pedi stool
I think this is the highest value offering from your post. I want one.
Here you go honey:
As for some of the rest of it, esp about weight, Jacobson is only a few kg heavier (if you believe any of the weights on the internet). Some players also punch well above their weight in terms of impact. Sam Cane is one of them.
@yeahtheboys said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
have Jordies cock stuck down your throat.
Yeah nothing “eye patch” about that one. I’d say zero self-awareness but that would be far too kind.
On the Ardie thing. He’s not out of position at 8 any more because he plays there so often. But he’s not the best test level option there. Imho that’s Jacobsen. Ardie is a brilliant bench option though.
@kiwi_expat said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
Spencer-like players in McKenzie & B.Barrett for their dual-playmaker axis in 2018 over Mo'unga
ah, Richie Mo'unga is the Carlos Spencer you buy from Wish
@yeahtheboys said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
I’m sick of some of you eye-patch “supporters” hating on certain players and cherry picking everything about them
fuck i so totally agree with it.
I believe two things:
Some of you have entrenched bias, and can't see past that when evaluating a players worth to the side
and
all the Barretts are shit and should stick to Super Rugby
McKenzie is pretty good positionally in general I reckon. Better than Jordie, though he's not bad either.
He's small, and he runs sideways when nothing is on. His decisions when things are on, are generally good. If nothing is on and you're a midget, buying some time by running sideways isn't actually the worst option, even though it is ugly as fuuuuck to watch.
Fact is Foster seems set on the dual playmaker, and McKenzie probably is the best of them in that role.
@mariner4life said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@yeahtheboys said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
I’m sick of some of you eye-patch “supporters” hating on certain players and cherry picking everything about them
fuck i so totally agree with it.
I believe two things:
Some of you have entrenched bias, and can't see past that when evaluating a players worth to the side
and
all the Barretts are shit and should stick to Super Rugby
@kiwi_expat I think you are way off beam in your analysis. Have you ever watched how opposition backlines react to DMacs field coverage? He constantly creates threats, and stretches the opposition to counter, popping up across the width of the park. I would have thought that wore down the opposition to some degree. Not sure how you and others regard him as such a liability in everything he does at high level.
Jordie is a great player and I think he could be a world class 12, but the Hurricanes make him play a certain type of game at 15 only, to cover limitations around him. He does that extremely well.
It is staggering to see how there is a huge outcry again about 15 when that is not what the Aussie comeback or heavy penalty count for AB's was all about.
@arhs said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@kiwi_expat I think you are way off beam in your analysis. Have you ever watched how opposition backlines react to DMacs field coverage? He constantly creates threats, and stretches the opposition to counter, popping up across the width of the park. I would have thought that wore down the opposition to some degree. Not sure how you and others regard him as such a liability in everything he does at high level.
thats not untrue....but i dont think he converts anywhere near as many as he should, he might stretch the defence and then throw a hospital pass or not see what he's created and take it into contact whilst isolated...maybe he's not tall enough too see everything
that why what he does, in my mind, works so much better as an impact when the team is tired, doing what he does in the first 20min with fresh jackles is dangerous
@arhs said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@kiwi_expat I think you are way off beam in your analysis. Have you ever watched how opposition backlines react to DMacs field coverage? He constantly creates threats, and stretches the opposition to counter, popping up across the width of the park. I would have thought that wore down the opposition to some degree. Not sure how you and others regard him as such a liability in everything he does at high level.
We're talking about Test rugby here. The one where he constantly goes backwards or runs away from support so our forwards have to go backwards to support him, or he gives hospital passes to avoid getting tackled.
@antipodean said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@arhs said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@kiwi_expat I think you are way off beam in your analysis. Have you ever watched how opposition backlines react to DMacs field coverage? He constantly creates threats, and stretches the opposition to counter, popping up across the width of the park. I would have thought that wore down the opposition to some degree. Not sure how you and others regard him as such a liability in everything he does at high level.
We're talking about Test rugby here. The one where he constantly goes backwards or runs away from support so our forwards have to go backwards to support him, or he gives hospital passes to avoid getting tackled.
He did that at least three times last test, looked flash but ABs ended up in s much worse position afterwards. It's really ineffective and undesirable at international level. Foster & Aaron specifically pointed out going wide to early, and DMac as one of the decision makers was one of the worst for that
@machpants its also hard to anticipate so the other backs seem to struggle to be in the right position IF he does create something
I do find it funny that we spend so much time pissing around about 15, when our problems are with our go forward up front, our discipline, and our strategy/tactics which are the primary responsibility of our main playmaker.
I’m really starting to wonder whether Mo’unga can drive a team around the field - they seem set on having others there to help him do his job.
@gt12 said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
I do find it funny that we spend so much time pissing around about 15, when our problems are with our go forward up front, our discipline, and our strategy/tactics which are the primary responsibility of our main playmaker.
I’m really starting to wonder whether Mo’unga can drive a team around the field - they seem set on having others there to help him do his job.
Yeah they took it wide too early, because that what the play makers called. Smith mentioned that specifically, there were so many options, they tried them too early
@machpants said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
@gt12 said in Hansen/Foster's recent selection philosophy & the consequences it has on team balance (back-row, back-three, bench etc..):
I do find it funny that we spend so much time pissing around about 15, when our problems are with our go forward up front, our discipline, and our strategy/tactics which are the primary responsibility of our main playmaker.
I’m really starting to wonder whether Mo’unga can drive a team around the field - they seem set on having others there to help him do his job.
Yeah they took it wide too early, because that what the play makers called. Smith mentioned that specifically, there were so many options, they tried them too early
Yeah, I heard him talk about that and liked the fact that he said that he could also improve - they seem to have leadership teams and his appears to be defense, so he wasn't necessarily being as vocal as he could have. I'd like to know who drives the attack, as he didn't mention Dmac by name, but I assume it is Mo'unga, Havili, and Dmac. It may be too many cooks and broth situation, so Dmac probably has some blame.
Long story short the coaching staff became totally ambivelant about how the game should be played and the positional requirements at All Black level.
They started to fetishise getting in the squad rather than the 23 or 15.
There are a lot of issues but I think most start from there. How many players currently own their All Black jersey? Fuck all.
A big part of rugby is winning the collisions.
When you've got a lot of little guys in the team, you start to lose too many and too many in a row - and you get hurt.
You need a few playmakers - the best of whom tend to be a bit smaller and you have to accept they'll get flattened or run over occasionally - but, I like to have plenty of big guys around them so that there's bail out options regularly on hand and guys who can cover defensively. I miss Ma'a Nonu!
When we start fielding an under-sized 8 in Ardie, Aaron Smith, Mo'unga, Havili (a smallish 12), Sevu Reece and DMac that's starting to get a bit Japan-like to me.
I'm inclined to throw in a few more bigger bodies.
