Black Caps CWC Squad Prediction
So after the SL series it looks like we're in pretty good heart and one or two questions have been answered but others have also been posed. Fitness concerns around past squad members also cloud the issue.
Certainties are Guptill, Williamson, Taylor, Santner, Southee and Boult. Highly likely for mine are Nicholls, Neesham, Sodhi and Henry. There are question marks over Guptills' opening partner, wicketkeeping, the possible inclusion of another allrounder, and pace bowling options. Additionally, will Adam Milne ever come back? Will Corey Anderson ever bowl again?
Personally, I'd have Latham opening with Guppy. Munro is explosive but averages just 26 and hasn't managed a century in 46 odd games. Latham averages 33 with 4 centuries. Sure, he's simply steady, but his numbers stack up and having your 'keeper in the top five opens up options down the order for more hitting power.
He'd be joined by Guppy with Kane at first-drop and Rosco at 4. Nicholls has done enough to sew up the number 5 spot now. Neesham at 6 is probably now also a given. His batting ability was probably never really in doubt but he was also handy with the ball and certainly good enough to share ten overs with others.
With five positions still available in this line-up there's room for another genuine all-rounder (de Grandhomme has this spot unless Anderson can deliver some overs and proves it over the next few weeks), a spinner (Sodhi or Santner) and three quicks. Or alternatively both spinners with Santner precariously considered an all-rounder, but for me he's a bowler who bats a bit and playing he and Sodhi together gives us too much of a tail. The quicks would be three of Boult, Southee, Henry and Ferguson, unless Milne can get back in which case he's a like-for-like swap for Ferguson in terms of pace and point of difference, but Milne also offers a bit with the bat.
A back-up 'keeper is required and Seifert has the inside running on this spot. With only five batsmen and one of them is the first-choice 'keeper, there's room (and a requirement really) for another batsman which comes down to Munro or Worker. Munro could open or be used down the order as a hitter/closer as well so I'd persevere unless someone else gets and takes their chance in the India series.
So my squad:
Guptill Latham Munro Williamson Taylor Nicholls Neesham de Grandhomme Seifert Santner Sodhi Henry Southee Boult Ferguson
@Hooroo said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
I think Nicholls, Sohdi and Neesham are a lock and Santner is a likely.
I also think you need to make room for Bennett too (Was he the one with squad for this series but didn't get a match? I may be getting my names mixed up)
Nah that was Bracewell. I think they selected him in the ODI squad for SL thining that he and Neesham would both get their chance to interview for a spot in addition to de Grandhomme, but Neesham shot the lights out in his first crack and that issue was resolved so Bracewell couldn't even get a look in the dead rubber third ODI.
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@Hooroo said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
I think Nicholls, Sohdi and Neesham are a lock and Santner is a likely.
I also think you need to make room for Bennett too (Was he the one with squad for this series but didn't get a match? I may be getting my names mixed up)
Nah that was Bracewell. I think they selected him in the ODI squad for SL thining that he and Neesham would both get their chance to interview for a spot in addition to de Grandhomme, but Neesham shot the lights out in his first crack and that issue was resolved so Bracewell couldn't even get a look in the dead rubber third ODI.
That's the one! Bracewell.
Is 15 the standard squad number?
@MN5 said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
In what universe is Neesham not a dead set certainty?
He shoulda been at the last cup although obviously Elliot did brilliantly well.
He's only played three games after a long absence and was never an ODI incumbent before. Let's see how he goes VS India as they're a sterner test, but he's a likely starter.
This is not directed at you shark as much as the selectors, but with a major injury to one of our middle order how can we replace them from within the squad without having a tail that starts at 5?
Last CWC we took two spinners (Hart and Vettori) who played a total of one game against Scotland. The game has changed in 20 years though and many spinners have adapted to be economical innings eaters in all conditions with the whiteball - but I wouldn't place Sodhi or Santner in that category. I think you take one of those maximum.
Always liked Bracewell and without too much Plunket Shield on the telly his statistics this season have been pretty strong. Another ex-BC who keeps jumping out from scorecards this summer, including the India A series, is Hamish Rutherford - although he doesn't seem to be in the picture.
Personal preference would be drop de Grandhomme and probably Santner (alternatively Ish) for Braces and another the best out and out top order batsman in the country currently not in the squad.
@rotated said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
This is not directed at you shark as much as the selectors, but with a major injury to one of our middle order how can we replace them from within the squad without having a tail that starts at 5?
Last CWC we took two spinners (Hart and Vettori) who played a total of one game against Scotland. The game has changed in 20 years though and many spinners have adapted to be economical innings eaters in all conditions with the whiteball - but I wouldn't place Sodhi or Santner in that category. I think you take one of those maximum.
Always liked Bracewell and without too much Plunket Shield on the telly his statistics this season have been pretty strong. Another ex-BC who keeps jumping out from scorecards this summer, including the India A series, is Hamish Rutherford - although he doesn't seem to be in the picture.
Personal preference would be drop de Grandhomme and probably Santner (alternatively Ish) for Braces and another the best out and out top order batsman in the country currently not in the squad.
Quite a few relatively oddball suggestions there. There's no real reason to look further at Bracewell or at Rutherford, in the context of the current squad and returning players. As for not taking two spinners, you may have a case but I'd take two.
Re covering for a middle order injury, that's easy in this squad. You have five batsmen anyway as three are six in my squad and they can be juggled due to the flexibility provided by Latham and Munro, then there are 2-3 all rounders (if you include Santner as one) and a batting back up 'keeper in Seifert.
@rotated said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
Hypothetical - after having been passed over at the IPL auction Baz declares himself available for CWC if needed. Would he make your squad, if not how close would he get for you?
If he showed some form for the Heat (one score after a run of shit scores doesn't count as form), I'd consider him as a replacemtn for Munro.
@rotated said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
Hypothetical - after having been passed over at the IPL auction Baz declares himself available for CWC if needed. Would he make your squad, if not how close would he get for you?
Not sure he would get close anymore - he's a very known quantity by opposition bowlers all around the world, personally I think his reaction time and batspeed has diminished significantly - and the CWC is in England, meaning Dukes balls which means technical aptitude is far more important in an ODI context than elsewhere. Sure he might bring off one good innings in 5, but that's not good enough at the CWC.
@SynicBast said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@rotated said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
Hypothetical - after having been passed over at the IPL auction Baz declares himself available for CWC if needed. Would he make your squad, if not how close would he get for you?
Not sure he would get close anymore - he's a very known quantity by opposition bowlers all around the world, personally I think his reaction time and batspeed has diminished significantly - and the CWC is in England, meaning Dukes balls which means technical aptitude is far more important in an ODI context than elsewhere. Sure he might bring off one good innings in 5, but that's not good enough at the CWC.
That's about the same ratio as Munro.
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@SynicBast said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@rotated said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
Hypothetical - after having been passed over at the IPL auction Baz declares himself available for CWC if needed. Would he make your squad, if not how close would he get for you?
Not sure he would get close anymore - he's a very known quantity by opposition bowlers all around the world, personally I think his reaction time and batspeed has diminished significantly - and the CWC is in England, meaning Dukes balls which means technical aptitude is far more important in an ODI context than elsewhere. Sure he might bring off one good innings in 5, but that's not good enough at the CWC.
That's about the same ratio as Munro.
Which is why I'm not a fan of Munro - he's more of a T20 specialist - if he had to bat it would be within the last 5 overs, but he doesn't offer anything outside his batting which precludes him from anywhere in the middle order anyway. Munro is your prototypical one dimensional player.
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
Quite a few relatively oddball suggestions there. There's no real reason to look further at Bracewell or at Rutherford, in the context of the current squad and returning players. As for not taking two spinners, you may have a case but I'd take two.
Can only really go on scorecards but Braces was in the squad and Rutherford was selected in the A squad against India and has kept ticking over since then - so both surely are in the frame. Rutherford isn't contracted though.
Re covering for a middle order injury, that's easy in this squad. You have five batsmen anyway as three are six in my squad and they can be juggled due to the flexibility provided by Latham and Munro, then there are 2-3 all rounders (if you include Santner as one) and a batting back up 'keeper in Seifert.
I may be looking for a guy that doesn't exist, but I'd want another batsman who has a bit more versatility and can play the middle innings and/or begin the acceleration around the 40th over if required. Munro happens to open - but I'd class him as more of a dasher with one gear and needs to either open or close the innings. If we lose Taylor or Williamson - aside from being fucked - Nicholls obviously slides up but we would need another bat at 5 who is able to come in anywhere after the 15th over at 3 down and play us back into the game.
The temptation is to say de Grandhomme who does have the talent and application to bat 25 overs in an ODI against quality bowling ticking over the strike. But like Elliott (I know...) or Harris if he bats 25 overs you have merely saved faced and almost certainly not scored enough runs.
The situation is virtually the same as last CWC. When it comes to the finals the only obvious path to victory on a low scoring pitch Boult and Southee outbowling the opposition and in high scoring games Guppy, Kane or Taylor need a century or we will lose.
@rotated said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
Quite a few relatively oddball suggestions there. There's no real reason to look further at Bracewell or at Rutherford, in the context of the current squad and returning players. As for not taking two spinners, you may have a case but I'd take two.
Can only really go on scorecards but Braces was in the squad and Rutherford was selected in the A squad against India and has kept ticking over since then - so both surely are in the frame. Rutherford isn't contracted though.
Re covering for a middle order injury, that's easy in this squad. You have five batsmen anyway as three are six in my squad and they can be juggled due to the flexibility provided by Latham and Munro, then there are 2-3 all rounders (if you include Santner as one) and a batting back up 'keeper in Seifert.
italicised textI may be looking for a guy that doesn't exist, but I'd want another batsman who has a bit more versatility and can play the middle innings and/or begin the acceleration around the 40th over if required. Munro happens to open - but I'd class him as more of a dasher with one gear and needs to either open or close the innings. If we lose Taylor or Williamson - aside from being fucked - Nicholls obviously slides up but we would need another bat at 5 who is able to come in anywhere after the 15th over at 3 down and play us back into the game.
The temptation is to say de Grandhomme who does have the talent and application to bat 25 overs in an ODI against quality bowling ticking over the strike. But like Elliott (I know...) or Harris if he bats 25 overs you have merely saved faced and almost certainly not scored enough runs.
The situation is virtually the same as last CWC. When it comes to the finals the only obvious path to victory on a low scoring pitch Boult and Southee outbowling the opposition and in high scoring games Guppy, Kane or Taylor need a century or we will lose.
That guy is possibly Anderson playing as a batsman.
@rotated I was wondering just the other day about Baz, mainly in the context of it being unfortunate timing that we don't have him at his peak right now, to go with Guppy, Kane, Rossco, Trent et al. Seems he smacked 56 last night, but otherwise his form hasn't been good enough.
I think that if we lost a middle order player then Latham would bat at 5.
I think we need to use Munro as an opener and just hope for the best - for me, Tom Latham just doesn't generate the necessary strike rate and that puts too much reliance on Guppy (initially) to hit out. I think Latham plays, because he's the best keeper - but he floats in the order - batting six if we lose early wickets - dropping down if we need more firepower.
Munro
Guptill
Williamson
Taylor
Nicholls
Latham
Neesham
Santner
Southee
Ferguson
Boult
Plus: Sodhi, Seifert, de Grandhomme and probably Henry, but maybe yet another spinner (if we're mainly going to play two specialist spinners, as was suggested as a possibility by Hesson).
@LABCAT said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
Latham is actually the incumbent 5 and Nicholls was just moved up while he took a rest for the last series.
I would say it will remain that way as Nicholls looks to have more ability than Latham to hit from ball one.
Holy cow, it almost sounds like we have, dare I say it, depth 
@LABCAT Right on both counts, I think. 
In fact, Tom could float significantly more than I've outlined above. If, like yesterday, we lose two early wickets, he could potentially bat at four (or even three) to provide more protection for Rossco (and/or Kane).
This whole generating SR to take pressure off Guppy thing while not irrelevent, isn't really a case to carry on with Munro either.
Munro's SR is 106.69 with an average of 26 and that means he faces 25 balls for 26 runs on average. That's not much. Only 7 times in 42 innings has he passed 50. So 16% of the time he contributes to a signficant fast start and takes the pressure off Guppy to score quickly. Fuck all.
Latham's SR is 82.38. Averaging 33, that means he faces around 39-40 balls on average per innings. Guptills is 86.60. If they bat through ten overs (60 balls) together we'll be around 55/0. 5.5 an over is where you want to be with wickets in hand with 15 overs to go in order to launch and go past 300, so why do we need to open the innings with a liability on the off-chance he'll have an 'on' day and score a quick 50?
Plus, dare I say it, but look at Munro's best ODI innings and tell me he isn't an archetypal flat track bully. Of his 7 fifties, they've come at run paradises Potchefstroom, Kanpur, Christchurch, Hamilton and the Mount, plus another against Bangladesh. The other one was in Wellington, not sure which ground but a NZ total of 317 suggests it wasn't a difficult track.
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
This whole generating SR to take pressure off Guppy thing while not irrelevent, isn't really a case to carry on with Munro either.
Munro's SR is 106.69 with an average of 26 and that means he faces 25 balls for 26 runs on average. That's not much. Only 7 times in 42 innings has he passed 50. So 16% of the time he contributes to a signficant fast start and takes the pressure off Guppy to score quickly. Fuck all.
Latham's SR is 82.38. Averaging 33, that means he faces around 39-40 balls on average per innings. Guptills is 86.60. If they bat through ten overs (60 balls) together we'll be around 55/0. 5.5 an over is where you want to be with wickets in hand with 15 overs to go in order to launch and go past 300.
You'd need to look at actual first 30 ball performance for this to make sense. I would expect that both Latham and Guptill score well below their average strike rate (although to a lesser extent with Guptill) early in their innings.
@Cyclops said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
This whole generating SR to take pressure off Guppy thing while not irrelevent, isn't really a case to carry on with Munro either.
Munro's SR is 106.69 with an average of 26 and that means he faces 25 balls for 26 runs on average. That's not much. Only 7 times in 42 innings has he passed 50. So 16% of the time he contributes to a signficant fast start and takes the pressure off Guppy to score quickly. Fuck all.
Latham's SR is 82.38. Averaging 33, that means he faces around 39-40 balls on average per innings. Guptills is 86.60. If they bat through ten overs (60 balls) together we'll be around 55/0. 5.5 an over is where you want to be with wickets in hand with 15 overs to go in order to launch and go past 300.
You'd need to look at actual first 30 ball performance for this to make sense. I would expect that both Latham and Guptill score well below their average strike rate (although to a lesser extent with Guptill) early in their innings.
Yep, fair call. Still not a solid argument for Munro though.
@shark Also need to take into account that only half of his ODI innings have been as an opener.
Batting records | One-Day Internationals | Cricinfo Statsguru | ESPNcricinfo.com
He had a terrible series against England - 56 runs in 5 innings @11 - but otherwise he's not been awful. Sawn-off by Rossco's running in his best innings!
@Chris-B said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
He had a terrible series against England - 56 runs in 5 innings @11 - but otherwise he's not been awful. Sawn-off by Rossco's running in his best innings!
Some might even call that a disgrace.
@Chris-B said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark Also need to take into account, that only half of his ODI innings have been as an opener.
He had a terrible series against England - 56 runs in 5 innings @11 - but otherwise he's not been awful. Sawn-off by Rossco's running in his best innings!
Fuel to the fire. Good team, even on good batting decks, and Munro can't score.
@shark One more thing to take into account is that Munro has a good T20 record.
Opening in T20s he averages 48, with two hundreds and five 50s.
@Chris-B said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark One more thing to take into account is that Munro has a good T20 record.
Opening in T20s he averages 48, with two hundreds and five 50s.
Quite irrelevant to a discussion re his ODI credentials when the ODI sample size stands up on its own, don't you think?
I think CDG is a lock based on selector comments before the SL series - they were looking for his backup, not his replacement. Neesham is obviously the front runner for that currently, but that's as the second all-rounder, not the first one. The squad in the OP is about where we're at currently, so this is how I'd pick it:
First XI
Guptill
Munro
Williamson (capt)
Taylor
Nicholls
Latham (wk, vc)
de Grandhomme
Santner
Southee
Boult
Ferguson
Reserves
Neesham
Seifert (wk)
Sodhi
Henry
If someone could name a better opener to replace Munro, great, but we've probably left our run too late. If we want another middle order batsman, Worker seems fine.
@Godder said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
I think CDG is a lock based on selector comments before the SL series - they were looking for his backup, not his replacement. Neesham is obviously the front runner for that currently, but that's as the second all-rounder, not the first one. The squad in the OP is about where we're at currently, so this is how I'd pick it:
First XI
Guptill
Munro
Williamson (capt)
Taylor
Nicholls
Latham (wk, vc)
de Grandhomme
Santner
Southee
Boult
FergusonReserves
Neesham
Seifert (wk)
Sodhi
HenryIf someone could name a better opener to replace Munro, great, but we've probably left our run too late. If we want another middle order batsman, Worker seems fine.
I am kind of liking this team. It it tempting to drop Munro/Nicholls and have Latham open or bat at 5 while picking two all rounders. You could do that. The only thing is if Neesham doesn't bowl well then de Grandhomme probably won't either. In a lot of ways it makes sense to pick just one of them.
@SynicBast said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
I played the argument, such as it was.
In completely different thread? Ok
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@Chris-B said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark One more thing to take into account is that Munro has a good T20 record.
Opening in T20s he averages 48, with two hundreds and five 50s.
Quite irrelevant to a discussion re his ODI credentials when the ODI sample size stands up on its own, don't you think?
Not in the slightest.
If you can score a century in T20 you can score a century in ODIs - except in ODIs there's more balls for Rossco to run you out!
@Chris-B said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@Chris-B said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark One more thing to take into account is that Munro has a good T20 record.
Opening in T20s he averages 48, with two hundreds and five 50s.
Quite irrelevant to a discussion re his ODI credentials when the ODI sample size stands up on its own, don't you think?
Not in the slightest.
If you can score a century in T20 you can score a century in ODIs - except in ODIs there's more balls for Rossco to run you out!
I think that is the selectors hope - if he can average above ~33 with a plus 100 strike rate that is valuable as it means Guppy/Kane/Rosco can play themselves in without worrying about generating a run rate early. I don't mind it, he's got a great eye and if he comes off we set ourselves up for a massive score.
@Chris-B said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@Chris-B said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
@shark One more thing to take into account is that Munro has a good T20 record.
Opening in T20s he averages 48, with two hundreds and five 50s.
Quite irrelevant to a discussion re his ODI credentials when the ODI sample size stands up on its own, don't you think?
Not in the slightest.
If you can score a century in T20 you can score a century in ODIs - except in ODIs there's more balls for Rossco to run you out!
This reminds me of some shit meme that was going round back in 2015 about the dangers of running with Ross Taylor and Scissors.....
The fact I'm really pissed when typing this and listening to Toto ( they just landed in NZ ) is irrelevant.
It's still dangerous.
Munro has had 46 games. 46 games. And only managed 7 scores over 50 and just the one over 75 just the other day. Surely if he was any good in this format and was going to make a big score he would have by now. And if he was to get a hundred soon I'd have to initially put it down to a fluke, unless he manages a couple in quick succession. But more likely he'll fail against India and serious questions will have to be asked about other options. He's been picked consistently now for a couple of seasons and needs to repay the faith, pronto.
@shark said in Black Caps 2019 Cricket World Cup Squad:
Munro has had 46 games. 46 games. And only managed 7 scores over 50 and just the one over 75 just the other day. Surely if he was any good in this format and was going to make a big score he would have by now. And if he was to get a hundred soon I'd have to initially put it down to a fluke, unless he manages a couple in quick succession. But more likely he'll fail against India and serious questions will have to be asked about other options. He's been picked consistently now for a couple of seasons and needs to repay the faith, pronto.
I'm not sure if I follow your argument against Munro. For me his selection is a two step idea.
- Do you fundamentally agree that best strategy, given our resources, having a dasher/slogger opening with Guppy?
- If yes, is Munro the best option for that role?
For the role Munro is expected to play judging him on 50s or 100s is the wrong yardstick. I would love an opener who we could judge by that yardstick btw - but then he would be playing a different role. We are expecting Munro to be a Kalu not a Jayasuria, a Greatbatch not a Wright.
The career average of 26 off 25 balls you pointed out is obviously not good enough for the role IMO. But that is his career and I would happily take an average of ~35 off 25 if he can produce that.