Super Rugby - Who Makes the Finals?

Teams will need five or six wins to make the playoffs, so it's going to be a tight fit at the bottom.

Brumbies will get a hiding next week (low tackle percentage), but might have the easiest run home.

The Rebels (five wins, four bonus points) are in some danger of dropping out with their tough run home. Their most winnable games might all be away fixtures: Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Drua. They may only need one more bonus point to clinch a playoff spot though.

The Chiefs have four very winnable games left, and will probably get a home quarter final.

The Reds (three wins, five bonus points) will target the Highlanders (H), Crusaders (A), Rebels (H), Force (H), and Waratahs (A), and should just squeak home.

That leaves two more places in the playoffs.

The Drua (three wins) only have one bonus point, so will need three wins. MP, Reds, and Rebels are all at home.

MP have the same wins and BPs, but one less game remaining. They have a tough run home and may well dip out.

The Tahs have two wins and four bonus points. They will target these four games: Brumbies (H), Force (A), MP (A), Reds (H). Three from four plus a bonus point or two is a tough ask. Probably miss out.

The Highlanders have two wins and three bonus points. Five of their games are winnable: Reds (A), Force (H), MP (A), Crusaders (H), Drua (H). Probably win three. Real danger of missing out. Crusaders game is huge for their season.

Crusaders: one (1) win, three bonus points. Remaining games: Force (A), Rebels (H), Reds (H), Highlanders (A), Brumbies (A), Blues (H), MP (H). If they can beat the Force (A), Rebels (H), Reds (H), and MP (H) then they have a chance. Hasn't happened this year though.

Force: isn't happening.

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Predictions?

Hurricanes
Blues
Brumbies
Chiefs
Reds
Rebels
Drua
Highlanders

Six wins could well be the dividing line.

Hurricanes vs. Blues final. Defence wins big matches. ;)