But what do I know, I’m Welsh
Make a cup of tea
Most observers believe the ‘Bomb Squad’ is responsible for much of SA’s success
It’s more nuanced than that, and it’s the nuances which make more of a difference I believe
And which makes Rassie one of the all-time best coaches
Every coach endeavours to identify, select and develop at least 2, preferably 3 players in each position who will fit into the coach’s system and philosophy
Whilst there is a pecking order in the ability from 1st choice to 3rd choice the goal is to minimise the fall off of performance as you work through the ranks
In an ideal world the best XV will take the field and remain on the field
But with the nature of the modern game’s substitutions and forced and unenforced stoppages (‘injury’ breaks) it’s a rare match where all 23 players are not involved at some stage of the match
Selection of the 23 and the starting XV is paramount
If you keep too many of your best players on the bench to impact the match later on you may / would normally find that the match has already gone away from you and even these great players can’t affect the outcome
What Rassie does better than anyone else I believe is select a starting XV which will be in contention at the 50-60 minute mark
From the 50th minute he’s looking to introduce individuals or groups of players who are arguably not the best in their position but who are the smartest and most analytical thinkers
Referees are more lenient earlier on in the match with regards to penalising and definitely YC for professionalism, weak scrums and killing the ball
So as the referee warms into the match and begins to see patterns developing he’s more likely to penalise those committing the transgressions more frequently and more severely
This is where players like Marks and Kwagga come in
The drop off in ability from whom they replace is slight
Invariably these are the thinkers
Rassie and they have identified where they can have the most impact on the match with the least amount of censure
Whilst both these players get penalised, they’re not penalty magnets
They commit their fouls in the right part of the park at the right time
Unlike other teams where the substitutes are behind the pace of the game and make dumb decisions which result in penalties and/or YCs
If SA are in the lead when players like these come on the referee interprets any 50/50 call in their favour more often than not
In the ref’s mind ‘SA are on top, these players are just reinforcing that. They’re fresh. Must have been the other guy committing the foul’
If SA are losing, they’ll soak up the pressure and seize the moment to turn the ball over when it presents itself. They don’t rush. They don’t let the adrenaline affect their decision making.
They’re fresher and also very skilled at turning the ball over and invariably they win the ball by fair means or get the call if it’s debatable
This then begins to change the narrative in the referee’s mind and if SA start pegging back the score then the referee starts to almost ‘reward’ this new found dominance. If becomes a virtuous cycle.
Conversely, other teams throw in a rookie who isn’t as disciplined and who becomes a penalty magnet
Or throw in a player who plays the game very differently from the player they’ve replaced and then the shape and patterns of play goes to shit
That’s why my suggestion of:
Darry, Vaa’i
Scooter, Cane/Paps, Ardie
Blackadder, Cane/Paps and possibly Finau
makes more sense than Razor’s selection and substitutions to date
But what do I know, I’m Welsh
@kiwiinmelb said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@nzzp said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@No-Quarter said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
The focus for change should be on the loose forwards, but the squad selection has left us nowhere to go there.
Who's responsible for loose forward selection again?
only mildly trolling - but the loosies selection got grief at the time for being 'samey' and you can see it play out poorly now. That was a really bad loss for us - where do you go now with the squad you've got?
I have a theory that Robertson may have a blind spot to players that were like him as a player. It would explain the predominance of 6.5 that we selected. Who knows though.
or he could have a preference for the types of players that have have served him well so far, which is at super rugby level ,
workrate grafters over physically dominant types who win collisions
It's the cantablacks all over again. Mitch and Deans always had a horn for a good journeyman
@No-Quarter said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
but he does not make dominant tackles and has zero impact with ball in hand
The bit that irks me is watching him try to attend a breakdown and getting spat out the back. And then everyone loving that he's a real pest at the breakdown despite being probably the most manhandled player.
Howzit gents. I was at the game on Saturday and it was every bit as physical as you can imagine. Heard the collisions - a top notch heavy-weight encounter that did justice to our sport. Anyway that being said I think this week in Cape Town could be very interesting. I suspect (from Rassie comments) that we will see some backline tweaks. I will not be surprised to see Grant Williams start at 9 with Lukhanyo Am coming in at 12. With Arendse out Canan Moodie most likely to fill that spot. Siya is out so will be interesting to see what happens there. And then #10 is going to be quite the debate. Solid money says Sasha continues but some of Rassie's comments makes me think he could do something weird there... I prefer he sticks with Sasha but then I am not the Bok coach 
Look forward to another epic clash.
@Bones said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@MiketheSnow Blackadder isn't getting dropped.
He isn’t
He’s there to combat a fresh as a daisy Kwagga
Stop Kwagga in the last 20 and you have a chance of coming away with a win
Same goes for Marks
Both those players are used to their utmost and invariably change the shape and result of a match
@voodoo said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
I'd also like to see Ratima start,. but that's not really going to shift the dial massively.
I think it would. His first instinct is to get the ball to DMac as quickly as possible.
@BerniesCorner said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@voodoo said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
I'd also like to see Ratima start,. but that's not really going to shift the dial massively.
I think it would. His first instinct is to get the ball to DMac as quickly as possible.
Look, I’m keen to see it as I said - guess I’m just not expecting it to be the panacea. He’ll make mistakes, there will be some trade-offs from TJ (who actually played OK last weekend other than a couple of dithers and the major brain/mouth fart)
@ACT-Crusader
It wasn’t until Jordie was moved away from fullback under Fozzy that the ABs made advances. He is not fast enough to play FB. Will Jordan or Beaudy would be my pics.
@Boston-Boy said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Here’s a crazy idea, how would Beaudy go at 13 next to Jordie Barret? There would be chemistry, a lack of muscle perhaps but would it be made up with finesse? Then you could have Will Jordan at the back.
Or use Proctor
If I was Razor I would start the young guys in the backline.
He knows he's got public support on his side after a good performance that wasn't quite good enough.
Minimal moaning from NZ fans as we are quietly proud of the scrum and lineouts. We are competing.
We won't win the RC regardless.
@Boston-Boy said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Here’s a crazy idea, how would Beaudy go at 13 next to Jordie Barret? There would be chemistry, a lack of muscle perhaps but would it be made up with finesse? Then you could have Will Jordan at the back.
We need to wait until a World Cup year to try that.
@Smudge said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@Boston-Boy said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Here’s a crazy idea, how would Beaudy go at 13 next to Jordie Barret? There would be chemistry, a lack of muscle perhaps but would it be made up with finesse? Then you could have Will Jordan at the back.
We need to wait until a World Cup year to try that.
You are such a support in these dark times!
@MiketheSnow said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Here’s a thought
Darry and Vaa’i in the engine room
Scooter, Cane/Paps, SaveaBlackadder and Cane/Paps on the pine
Possibly Finau too
Lineout was fine. Scooter stays where he is.
Blackadder was more than fine. So he'll start again.
One of Cane or Paps will be on the bench.
Savea needs a much better performance or very serious questions will be asked.
Yeah, I'd go with a 6-2 bench. Jacobson (or Savea) to come on with 20 to go.
Most importantly, we are still going to play our game plan because we have the skilful players to play at pace. We're not the international team that have lost our only world-class player to the Jacksonville Jaguars practice squad.
@Brandon Welcome. I thought Williams was a huge improvement at halfback for you guys. Would be fun to see Ratima vs Williams both as starting halfbacks.
@KiwiMurph howzit and thanks for the welcome. been here a long time actually just had to re-register at some stage and then actually comment a bit - always enjoyed this forum. I agree with your comment - will be great to see those 9s go at it!
@sparky said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@MiketheSnow said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Here’s a thought
Darry and Vaa’i in the engine room
Scooter, Cane/Paps, SaveaBlackadder and Cane/Paps on the pine
Possibly Finau tooLineout was fine. Scooter stays where he is.
Blackadder was more than fine. So he'll start again.One of Cane or Paps will be on the bench.
Savea needs a much better performance or very serious questions will be asked.
Yeah, I'd go with a 6-2 bench. Jacobson (or Savea) to come on with 20 to go.Most importantly, we are still going to play our game plan because we have the skilful players to play at pace. We're not the international team that have lost our only world-class player to the Jacksonville Jaguars practice squad.
And yet we both lost to SA
@MiketheSnow The All Blacks lost their last two games to SA by a combined total of five points or Wayne Barnes not seeing a dropped scrum bind and the TMO missing a Bongi knock on.
Wales lost their last two games to South Africa by a combined total of 64 points and I had to get out a calculator to do the Maths.
@Boston-Boy said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Here’s a crazy idea, how would Beaudy go at 13 next to Jordie Barret? There would be chemistry, a lack of muscle perhaps but would it be made up with finesse? Then you could have Will Jordan at the back.
BB at 13 Fuck no that is bat shit crazy.
@Chris I remember suggesting that the coaches try BB at 13 back in 2016, but it's far too late in his career to make the move to midfield.
@sparky said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@Chris I remember suggesting that the coaches try BB at 13 back in 2016, but it's far too late in his career to make the move to midfield.
yeah 8 years to late for that.
@Chris said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@sparky said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@Chris I remember suggesting that the coaches try BB at 13 back in 2016, but it's far too late in his career to make the move to midfield.
yeah 8 years to late for that.
You would have thought the logical time would have been when the cartel were toying with the double pivot. Why not have dual playmakers at 10 and 12 (DC played at 12 a few times early in his career), rather than 10 and 15? Lots of teams have done it. Giteau at 12 springs to mind (Nonu loved that in 2015...)
@canefan said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@Chris said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@sparky said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@Chris I remember suggesting that the coaches try BB at 13 back in 2016, but it's far too late in his career to make the move to midfield.
yeah 8 years to late for that.
You would have thought the logical time would have been when the cartel were toying with the double pivot. Why not have dual playmakers are 10 and 12 (DC played at 12 a few times early in his career), rather than 10 and 15? Lots of teams have done it. Giteau at 12 springs to mind (Nonu loved that in 2015...)
you are probably right there if you wanted to try that out..
@voodoo said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
BB at 13, now or 8 years ago?
This forum has gone fucken mad
@voodoo said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
BB at 13, now or 8 years ago?
This forum has gone fucken mad
May as well try Scott as a hard running second five and put Jordie at halfback for variety
@sparky said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Sadly, we never got to see Carl Hayman at 8 or Richie McCaw try his hand at reserve Hooker after the 2015 World Cup which were two of the more "interesting" suggestions I've seen on the Fern.
I must have missed that suggestion
@Billy-Webb said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Weather forecast for Saturday still looking good:
Pretty chilly, but no rain or excessive wind expected (yet).
Wow, that's cool!! The olds are on a tour following the team. Being from Wellie they will feel right at home!!
@sparky said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
@MiketheSnow The All Blacks lost their last two games to SA by a combined total of five points or Wayne Barnes not seeing a dropped scrum bind and the TMO missing a Bongi knock on.
Wales lost their last two games to South Africa by a combined total of 64 points and I had to get out a calculator to do the Maths.
So why make a personal comparison in the first place?
You'd have been better placed to compare yourselves with Ireland and work out how you can turn a narrow deficit into a win a week later
Another thought
The current ABs are like the Norwegian athlete Jakob Ingebrigtsen
When they can control the pace, tempo and tactics they lead from the get go and build up a lead and momentum which more often than not leads to victory
When they can't do that and have to either defend a lead or come from behind they often lose
By kicking the ball away so badly they put themselves in scenario 2
@MiketheSnow Not sure I agree with that. I think we generally lack control right now. As well as we played in that first 60, we still made errors in execution of our kicking game in particular that prevented us from getting out of sight. And the bench is our achilles heel, something that we prided as a strength before
@MiketheSnow said in Springboks vs All Blacks 2:
Another thought
The current ABs are like the Norwegian athlete Jakob Ingebrigtsen
When they can control the pace, tempo and tactics they lead from the get go and build up a lead and momentum which more often than not leads to victory
When they can't do that and have to either defend a lead or come from behind they often lose
By kicking the ball away so badly they put themselves in scenario 2
Super interesting comp actually. Some merit in it. Not so much in the “have to lead and control” part, but more in the “dominant over longer periods, but can struggle to withstand the pressure of a couple of challengers peaking at the perfect moment”.
As an aside, that 1500m was pretty wild - with hindsight, you could have absolutely scripted that for Hocker. Sit in the pocket, watch Jakob move out to block Kerr, slip up the inside, and hope to win with a time that isn’t a Jakob/Kerr pb
Perfect race for him - he’s basically SA rugby…